Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields around the World
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cc_-_15-10-30.pdf
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Author(s)
Costinot, Arnaud
Donaldson, Dave
Smith, Cory Benjamin
Date Issued
December 12, 2015
Journal
Journal of Political Economy
Publisher
University of Chicago Press
Citation
Costinot, Arnaud, Dave Donaldson, and Cory Smith. Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields around the World. Journal of Political Economy (forthcoming).
Version
Author's final manuscript
Abstract
A large agronomic literature models the implications of climate change for a variety of crops and locations around the world. The goal of the present paper is to quantify the macro-level consequences of these micro-level shocks. Using an extremely rich micro-level dataset that contains information about the productivity—both before and after climate change—of each of 10 crops for each of 1.7 million fields covering the surface of the Earth, we find that the impact of climate change on these agricultural markets would amount to a 0.26% reduction in global GDP when trade and production patterns are allowed to adjust.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics
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Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike
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