Quantifying the Lead Time Required for a Linear Trend to Emerge from Natural Climate Variability
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jcli-d-16-0280.1.pdf
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Author(s)
Li, Jingyuan
Thompson, David W. J.
Barnes, Elizabeth A.
Solomon, Susan
Date Issued
October 2017
Journal
Journal of Climate
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Citation
Li, Jingyuan, et al. “Quantifying the Lead Time Required for a Linear Trend to Emerge from Natural Climate Variability.” Journal of Climate, vol. 30, no. 24, Dec. 2017, pp. 10179–91. © 2017 American Meteorological Society.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
This study introduces a simple analytic expression for calculating the lead time required for a linear trend to emerge in a Gaussian first-order autoregressive process. The expression is derived from the standard error of the regression and is tested using the NCAR Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate change simulations. It is shown to provide a robust estimate of the point in time when the forced signal of climate change has emerged from the natural variability of the climate system with a predetermined level of statistical confidence. The expression provides a novel analytic tool for estimating the time of emergence of anthropogenic climate change and its associated regional climate impacts from either observed or modeled estimates of natural variability and trends.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0280.1
