Influences of Space Weather Forecasting Uncertainty on Satellite Conjunction Assessment
Name
Space Weather - 2024 - Parker - Influences of Space Weather Forecasting Uncertainty on Satellite Conjunction Assessment.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
3.07 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
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Author(s)
Parker, William E
Freeman, Mervyn
Chisham, Gareth
Kavanagh, Andrew
Mun Siew, Peng
Rodriguez‐Fernandez, Victor
Linares, Richard
Date Issued
July 22, 2024
Journal
Space Weather
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Citation
Parker, W. E., Freeman, M., Chisham, G., Kavanagh, A., Mun Siew, P., Rodriguez-Fernandez, V., & Linares, R. (2024). Influences of space weather forecasting uncertainty on satellite conjunction assessment. Space Weather, 22, e2023SW003818.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
A significant increase in the number of anthropogenic objects in Earth orbit has necessitated the
development ofsatellite conjunction assessment and collision avoidance capabilitiesfor new spacecraft. Neutral
mass density variability in the thermosphere, driven by enhanced geomagnetic activity and solar EUV
absorption, is a major source of satellite propagation error. This work investigates the impacts of space weather
driver forecasting uncertainty on satellite drag and collision avoidance maneuver decision‐making. Since most
operational space weather driver forecasts do not offer an uncertainty assessment, the satellite operator
community is left to make dangerous assumptions about the trustworthiness of the forecast models they use to
perform satellite state propagation. Climatological persistence‐based forecast models are developed for F10.7
and Kp. These models accurately capture the heteroscedastic and, at times, highly non‐Gaussian uncertainty
distribution on forecasts of the drivers of interest. A set of realistic satellite conjunction scenarios is simulated to
demonstrate the contributions of space weather driver forecast uncertainty on the probability of collision and
maneuver decisions. Improved driver forecasts, especially forecasts of F10.7, are demonstrated to be very useful
for enabling durable maneuver decisions with additional lead time (up to 24 hr for the period examined), though
the improvement depends on the specific conjunction scenario of interest.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics
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DOI of Published Version
10.1029/2023sw003818
