Dynamics of the illicit drug market in Italy
Name
958296282-MIT.pdf
Description
Full printable version
Size
8.48 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
3d76e6dba70e256ffdb1f0ca2b509efa
Author(s)
Martegiani, Gabriele
Advisor(s)
Hazhir Rahmandad.
Date Issued
2016
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
Alongside street crime, a high prevalence of illicit drug consumption in the population represents a great source of funding for organized crime, and this is especially true in Italy, where the main criminal organizations control almost all the imports of cocaine and heroin: as a consequence, it is of the utmost importance that the policymakers take decisive and effective actions against the prevalence of illicit drugs in the country. However, the fact that the data about the prevalence of consumption is self-reported by substance users might represent an obstacle to an objective planning and evaluation of repressive policies: it is well documented how the reporting rate is lower than the actual prevalence in the population. This research attempt to address this issue by modeling a structure of the Italian market for the two main heavy drugs in the country (cocaine and heroin), using the tools provided by System Dynamics, specifically to analyze the effects of the introduction of the law n.49/2006. The results presented by the model - and consistent with the real data - show that the actual prevalence in the population is increasingly different from the reported one following the implementation of the law. This result implies the necessity for policy makers to adopt more accurate tools for the evaluation of past and proposed policies, in order to be able to estimate the dynamics involved in the complex and little known market of illicit substances.
Description
Thesis: S.M. in Management Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 2016.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 42-44).
Subjects
Sloan School of Management.
MIT Department
Sloan School of Management
Terms of Use
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