Mechanisms of European summer drying under climate change
Name
1520-0442-JCLI-D-20-0968.1.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
6.71 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
2f575e3980951834d5c7a11408a2c891
Author(s)
Tuel, Alexandre
Eltahir, Elfatih AB
Date Issued
2021
Journal
Journal of Climate
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Citation
Tuel, Alexandre and Eltahir, Elfatih AB. 2021. "Mechanisms of European summer drying under climate change." Journal of Climate, 34 (22).
Version
Final published version
Abstract
AbstractThe geography of Europe as a continental landmass, located between the arid Sahara and the cold high latitudes (both are dry in terms of absolute humidity), dictates the reliance during summer of Southern Europe (south of 45°N) on stored water from winter and spring, and of Northwestern Europe on a small concentrated low-level moisture jet from the North Atlantic. In a recent study, we explained the projected winter precipitation decline over the Mediterranean under climate change as due to shifts in upper tropospheric stationary waves and to the regional-scale land-water warming contrast. Here, based on the analysis of observations and output from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models,we expand this theory further, documenting howthe winter precipitation decline expands into Southern Europe during spring, dictated by similar dynamical mechanisms, depleting soil moisture and setting the stage for drier summers via soil moisture-precipitation feedbacks. Over Northwestern Europe, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation west of the British Isles displaces the low-level moisture jet northwards, limiting moisture supply, and reducing low-level relative humidity (RH) and rainfall. Finally, we discuss how this comprehensive perspective of European summer climate change can help better understand the variations across model projections, and pave the way for their reduction.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0968.1
