Can Development Programs Counter Insurgencies? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan
Name
beath-et-al-2025-can-development-programs-counter-insurgencies-evidence-from-a-field-experiment-in-afghanistan.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
890.43 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
13ed48ee63b94776c1835a727eeaad47
Author(s)
Beath, Andrew
Christia, Fotini
Enikolopov, Ruben
Date Issued
July 2025
Journal
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
Publisher
American Economic Association
Citation
Beath, Andrew, Christia, Fotini and Enikolopov, Ruben. 2025. "Can Development Programs Counter Insurgencies? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 17 (3).
Version
Final published version
Abstract
We exploit a randomized controlled trial conducted between 2007 and 2011 to identify the effect of Afghanistan's largest local governance and development program on the strength of the insurgency. We find that the program reduced violence, improved economic outcomes, and increased government support in interior regions of the country, but increased violence in villages close to the Pakistani border, where foreign insurgents were more numerous. The results suggest that development programs can be effective in suppressing locally driven insurgencies, but may be counterproductive where insurgents are not reliant on the local population for support. (JEL C93, D74, F35, O15, O17, O18)
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science
MIT Institute for Data, Systems, and Society
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
10.1257/app.20230150
