Interaction between dry and hot extremes at a global scale using a cascade modeling framework
Name
s41467-022-35748-7.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
7.07 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
80d9c21694bb5bc824c3f81d435f034b
Author(s)
Mukherjee, Sourav
Mishra, Ashok Kumar
Zscheischler, Jakob
Entekhabi, Dara
Date Issued
January 17, 2023
Journal
Nature Communications
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Citation
Mukherjee, Sourav, Mishra, Ashok Kumar, Zscheischler, Jakob and Entekhabi, Dara. 2023. "Interaction between dry and hot extremes at a global scale using a cascade modeling framework." Nature Communications, 14 (1).
Version
Final published version
Abstract
AbstractClimate change amplifies dry and hot extremes, yet the mechanism, extent, scope, and temporal scale of causal linkages between dry and hot extremes remain underexplored. Here using the concept of system dynamics, we investigate cross-scale interactions within dry-to-hot and hot-to-dry extreme event networks and quantify the magnitude, temporal-scale, and physical drivers of cascading effects (CEs) of drying-on-heating and vice-versa, across the globe. We find that locations exhibiting exceptionally strong CE (hotspots) for dry-to-hot and hot-to-dry extremes generally coincide. However, the CEs differ strongly in their timescale of interaction, hydroclimatic drivers, and sensitivity to changes in the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum and background aridity. The CE of drying-on-heating in the hotspot locations reaches its peak immediately driven by the compounding influence of vapor pressure deficit, potential evapotranspiration, and precipitation. In contrast, the CE of heating-on-drying peaks gradually dominated by concurrent changes in potential evapotranspiration, precipitation, and net-radiation with the effect of vapor pressure deficit being strongly controlled by ecosystem isohydricity and background aridity. Our results help improve our understanding of the causal linkages and the predictability of compound extremes and related impacts.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35748-7
