Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization
Name
Beach-2015-Climate change impac.pdf
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1.85 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
06e275d55038213ad3278959a8a87f0b
Author(s)
Cai, Yongxia
Thomson, Allison
Zhang, Xuesong
Jones, Russell
Crimmins, Allison
Martinich, Jeremy
Cole, Jefferson
Ohrel, Sara
DeAngelo, Benjamin
McFarland, James
Date Issued
September 2015
Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Citation
Beach, Robert H, Yongxia Cai, Allison Thomson, Xuesong Zhang, Russell Jones, Bruce A McCarl, Allison Crimmins, et al. “Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture and Forestry: Benefits of Global Climate Stabilization.” Environmental Research Letters 10, no. 9 (September 1, 2015): 095004. © 2015 IOP Publishing Ltd
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015–2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change
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Creative Commons Attribution
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095004
