What does and does not correlate with COVID-19 death rates
Name
2020-009.pdf
Description
Submitted version
Size
5.5 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
3f5f1f1e2a9674be7a2140771141063c
Author(s)
Aleta, Alberto
Martín-Corral, David
Pastore y Piontti, Ana
Ajelli, Marco
Litvinova, Maria
Chinazzi, Matteo
Dean, Natalie E.
Halloran, M. Elizabeth
Longini Jr, Ira M.
Merler, Stefano
Alternative Title
Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19
Date Issued
August 2020
Journal
Nature Human Behaviour
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Citation
Aleta, A. et al. "Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19." Nature Human Behavior (July 2020): dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0931-9 © 2020 Springer Nature
Version
Original manuscript
Abstract
While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.
MIT Department
Sloan School of Management
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0931-9
