World energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions : 1950-2050
Name
34678795.pdf
Size
3.33 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
306657e1355e6e994a34e21ad0f37c06
Author(s)
Schmalensee, Richard
Stoker, Thomas M.
Judson, Ruth A.
Date Issued
1995
Publisher
MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research
Series/Report no.
MIT-CEEPR (Series) ; 95-001WP.
Abstract
Emissions of carbon dioxide form combustion of fossil fuels, which may contribute to long-term climate change, are projected through 2050 using reduced form models estimated with national-level panel data for the period 1950-1990. We employ a flexible form for income effects, along with fixed time and country effects, and we handle forecast uncertainty explicitly. We find an "inverse-U" relation with a within-sample peak between carbon dioxide emissions (and energy use) per capita and per capita income. Using the income and population growth assumptions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we obtain projections significantly and substantially above those of the IPCC.
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