Convergence of Expert Opinion via the Wideband Delphi Method: An Application in Cost Estimation Models
Name
CP_110623_Valerdi_Incose_IS_2011.pdf
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550.36 KB
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Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
9bfcfe2e04408dcb639a57edab3adab5
Author(s)
Valerdi, Ricardo
Date Issued
June 20, 2011
Abstract
This paper discusses the notion of collective intelligence through the application of the Wideband Delphi method as a way to obtain convergence among a group of experts. The specific application is the definition and calibration of cost estimation models that use data collected from experts as part of their calibration. Convergence is important in this case because companies need to commit to cost estimates early in the planning cycle since so many other decisions are dependent on it. Our results demonstrate that, in most cases, convergence among experts can be achieved after three rounds of the Wideband Delphi.
Subjects
collective intelligence
Wideband Delphi
convergence
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