Secrecy, deception and intelligence failure : explaining operational surprise in war
Name
64703431-MIT.pdf
Description
Full printable version
Size
4.78 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
b0766255270612ca4c8b26add2eabae5
Author(s)
Waters, Lonn Augustine
Advisor(s)
Barry Posen.
Date Issued
2005
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
Operational surprise attacks are large-scale, theater-level intrawar attacks, which result from a country misestimating the capabilities and intentions of its enemies. This thesis analyzes how these massive surprise attacks occur during war when countries should be especially wary of their enemies and vigilant for any evidence of attack. Three hypotheses may explain the frequency and success of operational surprise attacks including operational secrecy, strategic deception, and intelligence failure. Using the Battle of the Bulge in World War II and the Chinese counteroffensive in the Korean War as case studies, this analysis illustrates these three elements and evaluates their relative causal weight in these attacks. This study concludes that each hypothesis is a contributing element to the surprise attack, but that a failure of intelligence is the critical factor. Moreover, this failure stems from a "victory disease" - a belief held by military leaders and their intelligence staff when victory appears near that one's enemy is too weak or has allowed the opportunity to mount a successful counterattack pass.
(cont.) Thus, precisely when one's enemy becomes most desperate on the battlefield countries run a greater risk of surprise attack by failing to accurately estimate an enemy's strategic intentions and military capabilities.
Description
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Political Science, 2005.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 83-85).
Subjects
Political Science.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Political Science
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