Development of a sustainable transmission structure replacement and maintenance strategy
Name
1051237535-MIT.pdf
Description
Full printable version
Size
10.03 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
0fc2e6b0db0fc9df91ae02b6a8015d78
Author(s)
Tuttman, Max (Max B.)
Advisor(s)
Georgia Perakis and Konstantin Turitsyn.
Date Issued
2018
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
This thesis proposes methods to both estimate optimal aggregate investment levels for a system of transmission towers by means of an integrated corrosion and failure simulation as well as a method to identify specific assets in need of investment through a statistical model of structural health. Limited tower replacements over the past decade have resulted in an overall aging of PG&E's transmission system, leading to managerial concerns about potential increased maintenance and replacement costs going forward. The utility is seeking to be able to forecast its future needs despite a minimal history of asset failure. This work establishes long-term investment scenarios by simulating asset aging due to atmospheric corrosion and integrating those simulations with maintenance, replacement, and failure cost estimates. In addition, the aggregate investment forecasts are supplemented with an asset health ranking methodology that enables more targeted resource deployment. Implementation of the simulation based forecasting provides long-term spend estimates - on the order of many decades - and enables the production of sensitivity analyses based on underlying parameters grounded in physical system properties. This advances current industry spend forecasting which relies on qualitative risk assessments and past cost trends. Asset health indices generated from structural properties and environmental data are also shown to correctly rank a structure with a historic reported structural issue as at higher risk than a structure without a reported issue at a rate of 70%.
Description
Thesis: M.B.A., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, in conjunction with the Leaders for Global Operations Program at MIT, 2018.
Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, in conjunction with the Leaders for Global Operations Program at MIT, 2018.
Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 67-68).
Subjects
Sloan School of Management.
Mechanical Engineering.
Leaders for Global Operations Program.
MIT Department
Leaders for Global Operations Program at MIT
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Mechanical Engineering
Sloan School of Management
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