Using system dynamics to model and better understand state stability
Name
MIT Sloan WP 4661-07.pdf
Description
Final published version.
Size
484.07 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
f59fde7f09312a784bb9d01e10b9cecd
Author(s)
Choucri, Nazli
Goldsmith, Daniel
Madnick, Stuart E.
Mistree, Dinsha
Morrison, J. Bradley
Siegel, Michael D.
Date Issued
July 1, 2007
Publisher
© Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Citation
Choucri, N., Goldsmith, D., Madnick, S. E., Mistree, D., & Morrison, J. B. (2007). Using system dynamics to model and better understand state stability (Working Paper 4661-07). MIT Sloan School of Management.
Version
Final published version.
Series/Report no.
MIT Sloan School of Management; Working Paper: 4661-07
Abstract
The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of countries is of increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are important common processes. We have developed a system dynamics model of state stability based on an extensive review of the literature and debriefings of subject matter experts. We represent the nature and dynamics of the ‘loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and the core features of state resilience and its ‘capacity’ to withstand these ‘loads’, on the other. The challenge is to determine when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate conditions under which small additional changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. With these insights, we can identify appropriate and actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of radical shifts in behavior and enhance prospects for stability.
Subjects
Model
System Dynamics
State Stability
Terrorists
Insurgency
Regime Legitimacy
Terms of Use
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States
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