Meeting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions goals with the international air pollution provision of the clean air act
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Yuan_2022_Environ._Res._Lett._17_054019.pdf
Description
Published version
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8.7 MB
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Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
882a596f4c5f65b2d1bd1ca56188e2c2
Author(s)
Yuan, Mei
Barron, Alexander R
Selin, Noelle E
Picciano, Paul D
Metz, Lucy E
Reilly, John M
Jacoby, Henry D
Date Issued
2022
Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Citation
Yuan, Mei, Barron, Alexander R, Selin, Noelle E, Picciano, Paul D, Metz, Lucy E et al. 2022. "Meeting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions goals with the international air pollution provision of the clean air act." Environmental Research Letters, 17 (5).
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Abstract
We explore economic, distributional and health consequences of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions objectives that could be achieved using Section 115 of the Clean Air Act (international air pollution), which has only recently received detailed legal analysis as a potential U.S. climate policy tool. Under it a national emissions target could be allocated among the states. This illustrative analysis considers 45% and 50% reductions of energy and industry-related CO2 emissions by 2030, below 2005 levels, via a model rule. Different approaches (based on legal precedent) for the interstate allocation are considered, along with alternative rates of technology improvement. The detail needed to analyze this approach is provided by MIT’s U.S. Regional Energy Policy model (30 individual states and multi-state regions), with its electricity sector replaced by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Renewable Energy Development System (ReEDS). Air quality benefits are estimated using modeling tools developed by academic researchers and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Three-quarters of emissions reductions in 2030 come in the electric sector, while reductions elsewhere illustrate the efficiency advantage of a multi-sector policy. With all states participating in allowance trading, the resulting national emissions price is lower than in older assessments. The difference is due to lower growth expectations, recent state policies, falling costs of low carbon technologies, and an improved representation of electric system flexibility by the ReEDS model. Even ignoring climate and air quality benefits, economic welfare grows at near the baseline rate for all regions regardless of the interstate allocation approach. When states distribute allowance revenue to residents on an equal per-capita basis, the policy is welfare improving to the lowest income quintile in all regions. Aggregation of control costs, the mortality effects of reduced particulates, and the value of avoided climate damages yields positive national net benefits in all cases.
We explore economic, distributional and health consequences of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions objectives that could be achieved using Section 115 of the Clean Air Act (international air pollution), which has only recently received detailed legal analysis as a potential U.S. climate policy tool. Under it a national emissions target could be allocated among the states. This illustrative analysis considers 45% and 50% reductions of energy and industry-related CO2 emissions by 2030, below 2005 levels, via a model rule. Different approaches (based on legal precedent) for the interstate allocation are considered, along with alternative rates of technology improvement. The detail needed to analyze this approach is provided by MIT’s U.S. Regional Energy Policy model (30 individual states and multi-state regions), with its electricity sector replaced by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Renewable Energy Development System (ReEDS). Air quality benefits are estimated using modeling tools developed by academic researchers and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Three-quarters of emissions reductions in 2030 come in the electric sector, while reductions elsewhere illustrate the efficiency advantage of a multi-sector policy. With all states participating in allowance trading, the resulting national emissions price is lower than in older assessments. The difference is due to lower growth expectations, recent state policies, falling costs of low carbon technologies, and an improved representation of electric system flexibility by the ReEDS model. Even ignoring climate and air quality benefits, economic welfare grows at near the baseline rate for all regions regardless of the interstate allocation approach. When states distribute allowance revenue to residents on an equal per-capita basis, the policy is welfare improving to the lowest income quintile in all regions. Aggregation of control costs, the mortality effects of reduced particulates, and the value of avoided climate damages yields positive national net benefits in all cases.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AC6227
