Seasonal precipitation forecast over Morocco
Name
16112023.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
2.13 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
06fd1a4dc9d8404cbd54f6b57868ba0d
Author(s)
Tuel, Alexandre
Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.
Date Issued
October 2018
Journal
Water Resources Research
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Citation
Tuel, Alexandre and Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, "Seasonal Precipitation Forecast Over Morocco." Water Resources Research 54, 11 (November 2018): 9118-30 doi. 10.1029/2018WR022984 ©2018 Authors
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Interannual variability of precipitation is a challenge for water management in semiarid Morocco, where droughts are common and take a heavy toll on agricultural production. The question of forecast potential for winter and spring rainfall is therefore crucial for the country. As an addition to dynamical seasonal predictions, taking the case of the Oum Er Rbia watershed, the present study builds simple statistical forecasting models for Morocco's winter and spring precipitation, making use of oceanic forcing of atmospheric circulation. Previous results on the teleconnections between North Atlantic wintertime circulation and lagged ocean surface temperatures are confirmed. Based on a careful identification and selection of predictors, about 35–40% of interannual variability of precipitation may be robustly predictable with a lead time of 1 month. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
MIT Department
Parsons Laboratory for Environmental Science and Engineering (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022984
