The Effect of Forecasting Accuracy on the Sizing of Energy Storage
Name
The effect of forecasting.pdf
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1.17 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
cae4435b5b5be0e08b3b12813e43c250
Author(s)
Backhaus, Scott
Jaworsky, Christina A
Turitsyn, Konstantin
Date Issued
October 2014
Journal
Proceedings of the ASME 2014 Dynamic Systems and Control Conference DSCC2014
Publisher
American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
Citation
Jaworsky, Christina, Konstantin Turitsyn, and Scott Backhaus. “The Effect of Forecasting Accuracy on the Sizing of Energy Storage.” ASME 2014 Dynamic Systems and Control Conference DSCC2014, 22-24 October, 2014, San Antonio, Texas, USA, ASME, 2014. © 2014 by ASME
Version
Final published version
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to the problem of optimal sizing of energy storage required for compensation of wind farm generation variability. Using wind farm production data from the BPA, we assess the effect of forecast quality and economic dispatch timing on the size of storage and critical power rating required to nearly perfectly match the committed energy. We develop a Model-Predictive-Control (MPC) based operational model following NERC standard recommendations. Different forecasts are considered and compared from the storage sizing perspective. The results of our simulations can be fit by two simple relations, connecting the storage sizing with forecast error, wind variability, and the timescales of scheduling. A more accurate forecast reduces the storage sizing. However, diminishing returns are observed when the forecast error becomes comparable to natural wind variability within the commitment time interval. The proposed methodology can be extended to other systems with intermittent generation and controllable real or virtual storage.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Mechanical Engineering
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1115/DSCC2014-6113
