Bubble thy neighbour: Portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls
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Author(s)
Fratzscher, Marcel
Kostka, Thomas
Straub, Roland
Forbes, Kristin J
Date Issued
January 2016
Journal
Journal of International Economics
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Citation
Forbes, Kristin et al. “Bubble Thy Neighbour: Portfolio Effects and Externalities from Capital Controls.” Journal of International Economics 99 (March 2016): 85–104 © 2016 Elsevier B.V.
Version
Original manuscript
Abstract
We use changes in Brazil's tax on capital inflows from 2006 to 2013 to test for direct portfolio effects and externalities from capital controls on investor portfolios. We find that an increase in Brazil's tax on foreign investment in bonds causes fund managers to significantly decrease their portfolio allocations to Brazil in both bonds and equities. Fund managers simultaneously increase allocations to other countries that have substantial exposure to China and decrease allocations to countries viewed as more likely to adjust their capital controls. Much of the effect of capital controls on portfolio allocation appears to occur through signalling — i.e., changes in investor expectations about future policies — rather than the direct cost of the controls. This evidence of significant externalities from capital controls suggests that any assessment of controls should consider their effects on portfolio flows to other countries. Keywords: Capital controls; Externalities; Spillovers; Signalling; Mutual funds; Brazil
MIT Department
Sloan School of Management
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JINTECO.2015.12.010
