Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment
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acp-22-11125-2022.pdf
Description
Published version
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2.59 MB
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Author(s)
Lickley, Megan Jeramaz
Daniel, John S
Fleming, Eric L
Reimann, Stefan
Solomon, Susan
Date Issued
2022
Journal
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Citation
Lickley, Megan Jeramaz, Daniel, John S, Fleming, Eric L, Reimann, Stefan and Solomon, Susan. 2022. "Bayesian assessment of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and halon banks suggest large reservoirs still present in old equipment." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22 (17).
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Abstract. Halocarbons contained in equipment such as air conditioners, fire
extinguishers, and foams continue to be emitted after production has ceased. These “banks” within equipment and applications are thus potential sources of future emissions, and must be carefully accounted for in order to differentiate nascent and potentially illegal production from legal banked emissions. Here, we build on a probabilistic Bayesian model, previously developed to quantify chlorofluorocarbon (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113) banks and their emissions. We extend this model to a suite of banked chemicals regulated under the Montreal Protocol (hydrochlorofluorocarbon, HCFC-22, HCFC-141b, and HCFC-142b, halon 1211 and halon 1301, and CFC-114 and CFC-115) along with CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113 in order to quantify a fuller range of ozone-depleting substance (ODS) banks by chemical and equipment type. We show that if atmospheric lifetime and prior assumptions are accurate, banks are most likely larger than previous international assessments suggest, and that total production has probably been higher than reported. We identify that banks of greatest climate-relevance, as determined by global warming potential weighting, are largely concentrated in CFC-11 foams and CFC-12 and HCFC-22 non-hermetic refrigeration. Halons, CFC-11, and CFC-12 banks dominate the banks weighted by ozone depletion potential (ODP). Thus, we identify and quantify the uncertainties in substantial banks whose future emissions will contribute to future global warming and delay ozone-hole recovery if left unrecovered.
extinguishers, and foams continue to be emitted after production has ceased. These “banks” within equipment and applications are thus potential sources of future emissions, and must be carefully accounted for in order to differentiate nascent and potentially illegal production from legal banked emissions. Here, we build on a probabilistic Bayesian model, previously developed to quantify chlorofluorocarbon (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113) banks and their emissions. We extend this model to a suite of banked chemicals regulated under the Montreal Protocol (hydrochlorofluorocarbon, HCFC-22, HCFC-141b, and HCFC-142b, halon 1211 and halon 1301, and CFC-114 and CFC-115) along with CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113 in order to quantify a fuller range of ozone-depleting substance (ODS) banks by chemical and equipment type. We show that if atmospheric lifetime and prior assumptions are accurate, banks are most likely larger than previous international assessments suggest, and that total production has probably been higher than reported. We identify that banks of greatest climate-relevance, as determined by global warming potential weighting, are largely concentrated in CFC-11 foams and CFC-12 and HCFC-22 non-hermetic refrigeration. Halons, CFC-11, and CFC-12 banks dominate the banks weighted by ozone depletion potential (ODP). Thus, we identify and quantify the uncertainties in substantial banks whose future emissions will contribute to future global warming and delay ozone-hole recovery if left unrecovered.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.5194/ACP-22-11125-2022
