Perspectives on Cobalt Supply through 2030 in the Face of Changing Demand
Name
2020_cobalt_resource_review.pdf
Description
Accepted version
Size
1.61 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
f2c7845d39989be1c157d648775458f9
Author(s)
Fu, Xinkai
Beatty, Danielle N
Gaustad, Gabrielle G
Ceder, Gerbrand
Roth, Richard
Kirchain, Randolph E
Bustamante, Michele
Babbitt, Callie
Olivetti, Elsa A
Date Issued
2020
Journal
Environmental Science and Technology
Publisher
American Chemical Society (ACS)
Citation
Fu, Xinkai, Beatty, Danielle N, Gaustad, Gabrielle G, Ceder, Gerbrand, Roth, Richard et al. 2020. "Perspectives on Cobalt Supply through 2030 in the Face of Changing Demand." Environmental Science and Technology, 54 (5).
Version
Author's final manuscript
Abstract
Copyright © 2020 American Chemical Society. Lithium-ion battery demand, particularly for electric vehicles, is projected to increase by over 300% throughout the next decade. With these expected increases in demand, cobalt (Co)-dependent technologies face the risk of significant impact from supply concentration and mining limitations in the short term. Increased extraction and secondary recovery form the basis of modeling scenarios that examine implications on Co supply to 2030. Demand for Co is estimated to range from 235 to 430 ktonnes in 2030. This upper bound on Co demand in 2030 corresponds to 280% of world refinery capacity in 2016. Supply from scheduled and unscheduled production as well as secondary production is estimated to range from 320 to 460 ktonnes. Our analysis suggests the following: (1) Co price will remain relatively stable in the short term, given that this range suggests even a supply surplus, (2) future Co supply will become more diversified geographically and mined more as a byproduct of nickel (Ni) over this period, and (3) for this demand to be met, attention should be paid to sustained investments in refined supply of Co and secondary recovery.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Materials Science and Engineering
MIT Materials Research Laboratory
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Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1021/ACS.EST.9B04975
