Global population growth, technology, and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective
Name
MITJPSPGC_Rpt283.pdf
Size
2.53 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
8995971b749c98cbfe0baa7c6de907c4
Author(s)
Lanz, B.
Dietz, S.
Swanson, T.
Date Issued
October 2015
Publisher
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Citation
Report 283
Series/Report no.
MIT Joint Program Report Series;283
Abstract
We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress, and because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100 global population reaches 12 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.
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