From Opinion Dynamics to Collective Action: How Identity-Based Tolerance Leads to Political Extremism
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Liang-bjcliang-SMMR-Management-2024-thesis.pdf
Description
Thesis PDF
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9.75 MB
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Author(s)
Liang, Chen E.
Advisor(s)
Reagans, Ray
Zuckerman Sivan, Ezra W.
Date Issued
September 2024
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
Current sociological theories attribute the recent surge in political extremism to mechanisms of opinion “homophily” (i.e., like-minded individuals interact more while dissimilar ones might distance) and “assimilation (i.e., interactions homogenize opinions),” which collectively suggest a social world dominated by extreme views. Yet, this view contradicts empirical evidence showing that extremists still represent a minority and individual opinions remain largely stable. We resolve this apparent paradox by illustrating how extreme collective action can arise from a moderate majority that retains moderate opinions yet responds positively to recruitment by extremists. We break down this task into three steps. First, we theoretically distinguish between opinion homophily and identity homophily (i.e., individuals who share the same identity interact more). Second, we develop an agent-based model to manipulate the strength of identity homophily relative to opinion homophily, while excluding the effect of assimilation (i.e., holding opinions constant). Our model reveals that strong identity-based tolerance can create a “radicalized” structure, which allows extremists and moderates–who disagree in opinion but share an identity–to maintain stable relationships in emergent clusters; Further, the structure concentrates extremists at the center of the clusters, enabling them to form a critical mass that enlists a broader population. Finally, beyond confirming our expectations, we uncover unexpected model behaviors by exploring how the "radicalized" structure can transition between three other distinct structures the model generates. We show that homogeneous groups, often seen as indicators of polarization, could paradoxically be key to reducing organized extremism when dominated by moderates who can effectively mobilize collective action while marginalizing extremists.
MIT Department
Sloan School of Management
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