Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts
Name
Bei-2010-Oxidative capacity of the Mexico City atmosphere.pdf
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7.26 MB
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Author(s)
Bei, Naifang
Lei, Wenfang
Zavala, M.
Molina, Luisa Tan
Date Issued
July 2010
Journal
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Publisher
European Geosciences Union / Copernicus
Citation
Bei, N. et al. “Ozone Predictabilities Due to Meteorological Uncertainties in the Mexico City Basin Using Ensemble Forecasts.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10.13 (2010) : 6295-6309. © Author(s) 2010
Version
Final published version
Abstract
The purpose of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of ozone (O3)[(O subscript 3)] predictions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) to meteorological initial uncertainties and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes using state-of-the-art meteorological and photochemical prediction models through ensemble forecasts. The simulated periods (3, 9, 15 and 29 March 2006) represent four typical meteorological episodes ("South-Venting", "O3-North" ["O subscript 3 - North"], "O3-South" ["O subscript 3 - South"]and "Convection-North", respectively) in the Mexico City basin during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO campaign. Our results demonstrate that the uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions have significant impacts on O3 [O subscript 3] predictions, including peak time O3 [O subscript 3] concentrations ([O3] [O subscript 3]), horizontal and vertical O3 [O subscript 3] distributions, and temporal variations. The ensemble spread of the simulated peak [O3 [O subscript 3]] averaged over the city's ambient monitoring sites can reach up to 10 ppb. The increasing uncertainties in meteorological fields during peak O3 [O subscript 3] period contribute to the largest unpredictability in O3 [O subscript 3] simulations, while the impacts of wind speeds and PBL height on [O3 [O subscript 3]] are more straightforward and important. The magnitude of the ensemble spreads varies with different PBL schemes and meteorological episodes. The uncertainties in O3 [O subscript 3] predictions caused by PBL schemes mainly come from their ability to represent the mixing layer height; but overall, these uncertainties are smaller than those from the uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
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Creative Commons Attribution 3.0
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-6295-2010
