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Confidence and central tendency in perceptual judgment
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13414_2021_2300_ReferencePDF.pdf
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612.63 KB
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Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
0f8469ccde9f51dc7508d4a4b7e877b7
Author(s)
Xiang, Yang
Graeber, Thomas
Enke, Benjamin
Gershman, Samuel J.
Date Issued
April 22, 2021
Publisher
Springer US
Citation
Xiang, Yang, Graeber, Thomas, Enke, Benjamin and Gershman, Samuel J. 2021. "Confidence and central tendency in perceptual judgment."
Version
Author's final manuscript
Abstract
Abstract
This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the stimulus distribution. Based on a formal Bayesian framework, we generate predictions about the relationships between subjective confidence, central tendency, and response variability. Specifically, our model clarifies that lower subjective confidence as a measure of posterior uncertainty about a judgment should predict (i) a lower sensitivity of magnitude estimates to objective stimuli; (ii) a higher sensitivity to the mean of the stimulus distribution; (iii) a stronger central tendency effect at higher stimulus magnitudes; and (iv) higher response variability. To test these predictions, we collect a large-scale experimental data set and additionally re-analyze perceptual judgment data from several previous experiments. Across data sets, subjective confidence is strongly predictive of the central tendency effect and response variability, both correlationally and when we exogenously manipulate the magnitude of sensory noise. Our results are consistent with (but not necessarily uniquely explained by) Bayesian models of confidence and the central tendency.
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.3758/s13414-021-02300-6
