Reanalysis-driven simulations may overestimate persistent contrail formation by 100%–250%
Name
Agarwal_2022_Environ._Res._Lett._17_014045.pdf
Description
Published version
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1.74 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
84322ce795a9f0bf5fc892f4a0a564b5
Author(s)
Agarwal, Akshat
Meijer, Vincent R
Eastham, Sebastian D
Speth, Raymond L
Barrett, Steven RH
Date Issued
2022
Journal
Environmental Research Letters
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Citation
Agarwal, Akshat, Meijer, Vincent R, Eastham, Sebastian D, Speth, Raymond L and Barrett, Steven RH. 2022. "Reanalysis-driven simulations may overestimate persistent contrail formation by 100%–250%." Environmental Research Letters, 17 (1).
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Abstract
Model-based estimates of aviation’s climate impacts have found that contrails contribute 36%–81% of aviation’s instantaneous radiative forcing. These estimates depend on the accuracy of meteorological data provided by reanalyses like ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) and Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications V2 (MERRA-2). Using data from 793 044 radiosondes, we find persistent contrails forming at cruise altitudes in 30° N–60° S are overestimated by factors of 2.0 and 3.5 for ERA5 and MERRA-2, respectively. Seasonal and inter-annual trends are well-reproduced by both models (R2 = 0.79 and 0.74). We also find a contrail lifetime metric is overestimated by 17% in ERA5 and 45% in MERRA-2. Finally, the reanalyses incorrectly identify individual regions that could form persistent contrails 87% and 52% of the time, respectively. These results suggest that contrail models currently overestimate the number and lifetime of persistent contrails. Additional observations are needed for future models in order to provide locally accurate estimates of contrails or to support mitigation strategies.
Model-based estimates of aviation’s climate impacts have found that contrails contribute 36%–81% of aviation’s instantaneous radiative forcing. These estimates depend on the accuracy of meteorological data provided by reanalyses like ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) and Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications V2 (MERRA-2). Using data from 793 044 radiosondes, we find persistent contrails forming at cruise altitudes in 30° N–60° S are overestimated by factors of 2.0 and 3.5 for ERA5 and MERRA-2, respectively. Seasonal and inter-annual trends are well-reproduced by both models (R2 = 0.79 and 0.74). We also find a contrail lifetime metric is overestimated by 17% in ERA5 and 45% in MERRA-2. Finally, the reanalyses incorrectly identify individual regions that could form persistent contrails 87% and 52% of the time, respectively. These results suggest that contrail models currently overestimate the number and lifetime of persistent contrails. Additional observations are needed for future models in order to provide locally accurate estimates of contrails or to support mitigation strategies.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/AC38D9
