On the future zonal contrasts of equatorial Pacific climate: Perspectives from Observations, Simulations, and Theories
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s41612-022-00301-2.pdf
Description
Published version
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2.35 MB
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Checksum (MD5)
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Author(s)
Lee, Sukyoung
L’Heureux, Michelle
Wittenberg, Andrew T
Seager, Richard
O’Gorman, Paul A
Johnson, Nathaniel C
Date Issued
2022
Journal
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Citation
Lee, Sukyoung, L’Heureux, Michelle, Wittenberg, Andrew T, Seager, Richard, O’Gorman, Paul A et al. 2022. "On the future zonal contrasts of equatorial Pacific climate: Perspectives from Observations, Simulations, and Theories." npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5 (1).
Version
Final published version
Abstract
AbstractChanges in the zonal gradients of sea surface temperature (SST) across the equatorial Pacific have major consequences for global climate. Therefore, accurate future projections of these tropical Pacific gradients are of paramount importance for climate mitigation and adaptation. Yet there is evidence of a dichotomy between observed historical gradient trends and those simulated by climate models. Observational records appear to show a “La Niña-like” strengthening of the zonal SST gradient over the past century, whereas most climate model simulations project “El Niño-like” changes toward a weaker gradient. Here, studies of these equatorial Pacific climate trends are reviewed, focusing first on data analyses and climate model simulations, then on theories that favor either enhanced or weakened zonal SST gradients, and then on notable consequences of the SST gradient trends. We conclude that the present divergence between the historical model simulations and the observed trends likely either reflects an error in the model’s forced response, or an underestimate of the multi-decadal internal variability by the models. A better understanding of the fundamental mechanisms of both forced response and natural variability is needed to reduce the uncertainty. Finally, we offer recommendations for future research directions and decision-making for climate risk mitigation.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1038/S41612-022-00301-2
