Understanding & Modeling State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics
Name
esd-wp-2006-04.pdf
Size
1.68 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
a894ebdf553643a5cab3523fbc6b9450
Author(s)
Choucri, Nazli
Electris, Christi
Goldsmith, Daniel K.
Mistree, Dinsha
Madnick, Stuart E.
Morrison, J. Bradley
Siegel, Michael D.
Sweitzer-Hamilton, Margaret
Date Issued
February 2006
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division
Series/Report no.
ESD Working Papers;ESD-WP-2006-04
Abstract
The potential loss of state stability in various parts of the world is a source of threat to U.S. national security. Every case is unique, but there are common processes. Accordingly, we develop a system dynamics model of state stability by representing the nature and dynamics of ‘loads’ generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and by articulating the core features of state resilience and its ‘capacity’ to withstand these ‘loads’, on the other. The problem is to determine and ‘predict’ when threats to stability override the resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate propensities for ‘tipping points’, namely conditions under which small changes in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. On this basis, we then identify appropriate actionable mitigation factors to decrease the likelihood of ‘tipping’ and enhance prospects for stability.
Persistent DSpace Link
