Non-Nuclear, Low-Carbon, or Both? The Case of Taiwan
Name
MITJPSPGC_Rpt235.pdf
Description
main article
Size
1.1 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
fb0658d54068a7e9bd9061d9da993be9
Author(s)
Chen, Y.-H. Henry
Date Issued
December 2012
Publisher
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Citation
Report 235
Series/Report no.
Joint Program Report Series;235
Abstract
The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan has renewed debates on the safety of nuclear power,
possibly hurting the role of nuclear power in efforts to limit CO2 emissions. I develop a dynamic
economy-wide model of Taiwan with a detailed set of technology options in the power sector to
examine the implications of adopting different nuclear power policies on CO2 emissions and the
economy. Absent a carbon mitigation target, limiting nuclear power has a small economic cost for
Taiwan, but CO2 emissions may increase by more than 3.5% by 2035 when nuclear is replaced by
fossil-based generation. With a low-carbon target of a 50% reduction from year 2000 levels by
2050, if the nuclear option and carbon sequestration are not viable, gas-fired power would
provide almost 90% of electricity output due to the limited renewable resources. In particular,
wind power would account for 1.6% to 4.9% of that output, depending on how it relies on other
back-up capacities. With both non-nuclear and low-carbon policies, deploying carbon
sequestration on fossil-based generation can significantly reduce the negative GDP impact on the
economy. Lastly, lowering carbon mitigation costs further is possible with expanded nuclear
capacity.
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