World energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions : 1950-2050
Name
MITJPSPGC_Rpt5.pdf
Size
167.36 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
3d116fb8eac14084c0010acb33fb2b87
Date Issued
April 1996
Publisher
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
Series/Report no.
Report no. 5
Abstract
Emissions of carbon dioxide from combustion of fossil fuels, which may contribute to long-term climate change, are projected through 2050 using reduced form models estimated with national-level panel data for the period 1950-1990. We employ a flexible form for income effects, along with fixed time and country effects, and we handle forecast uncertainty explicitly. We find an "inverse-U" relation with a within-sample peak between carbon dioxide emissions (and energy use) per capita and per captia income. Using the income and population growth assumptions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we obtain projections significantly and substantially above those of the IPCC.
Description
Includes bibliographical references (p. 25-27).
Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).
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