Probabilistic policy experiments : the use of energy-economic-environmental models in the climate change policy process
Name
35719924.pdf
Size
1.55 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
1797d45dfc1dcbc63c73a210ee4f0faa
Author(s)
Margolis, Robert M.
Date Issued
1992
Publisher
MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research
Series/Report no.
MIT-CEEPR (Series) ; 92-012WP.
Abstract
This paper uses the Edmonds-Reilly model to explore an alternative approach for using energy-economic-environmental models when analyzing future CO2 emissions. This approach--conducting probabilistic policy experiments--can be used to investigate the effectiveness of various policy options in the context of uncertainty. the analysis builds on work by Nordhaus and Yohe (1983) and Edmonds et al. (1986). A key feature of using a probabilistic approach is that it offers both analysts and policymakers an opportunity to move away from arguing about which scenario is the "right," best guess scenario, and towards a discussion of which strategies are effective across a wide range of possible futures. this paper both develops a methodology for conducting probabilistic policy experiments and presents the results of 5 preliminary experiments using this approach.
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