Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century
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Emanuel-2013-Downscaling CMIP5 cl.pdf
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Author(s)
Emanuel, Kerry Andrew
Date Issued
July 2013
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences (U.S.)
Citation
Emanuel, K. A. “Downscaling CMIP5 Climate Models Shows Increased Tropical Cyclone Activity over the 21st Century.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110, no. 30 (July 23, 2013): 12219–12224.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(10[superscript 4])] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950–2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by 8.5 W m[superscript -2] over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1301293110
