Assessing the Impact of Typhoons on Rice Production in the Philippines
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Blanc_Assessing the impact.pdf
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Author(s)
Strobl, Eric
Blanc, Elodie
Date Issued
April 2016
Journal
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Citation
Blanc, Elodie, and Eric Strobl. “Assessing the Impact of Typhoons on Rice Production in the Philippines.” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 55.4 (2016): 993–1007. © 2016 American Meteorological Society
Version
Final published version
Abstract
This study quantifies the impact of typhoons on rice production in the Philippines. To this end, satellite-derived reflectance data are used to detect the location of rice fields at 500-m resolution. Utilizing typhoon-track data within a wind field model and satellite-derived precipitation measures, fragility curves are then employed to proxy the damage of storms on rice production within each rice field. The results from a panel spatial regression model show that typhoons substantially reduced local provincial production in the quarter of the strike, having caused losses of up to 12.5 million tons since 2001. Using extreme value theory to predict future losses, the results suggest that a typhoon like the recent Haiyan, which is estimated to have caused losses of around 260 000 tons, has a return period of 13 years. This methodology can provide a relatively timely tool for rice damage assessments after tropical cyclones in the region.
MIT Department
MIT Energy Initiative
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-15-0214.1
