A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network
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Nicolaides-2012-A Metric of Influent.pdf
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Author(s)
Nicolaides, Christos
Cueto-Felgueroso, Luis
Gonzalez, Marta C.
Juanes, Ruben
Date Issued
July 2012
Journal
PLoS ONE
Publisher
Public Library of Science
Citation
Nicolaides, Christos et al. “A Metric of Influential Spreading During Contagion Dynamics Through the Air Transportation Network.” Ed. Alessandro Vespignani. PLoS ONE 7.7 (2012): e40961.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading––the geographic spreading centrality––which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Computational Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
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Creative Commons Attribution
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0040961
