Time of steady climate change
Name
2018GL081704.pdf
Description
Published version
Size
2.79 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
ddb1b6b3eb49ae6298bd19fdc66548ce
Author(s)
Lickley, Megan Jeramaz
Cael, B. B.
Solomon, Susan
Date Issued
April 2019
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Citation
Lickley, Megan et. al., "Time of steady climate change." Geophysical Research Letters 46, 10 (April 2019): 5445-51 doi. 10.1029/2018GL081704 ©2019 Authors
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Under an emission scenario where atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized, previous work suggests that on centennial time scales the rate of global temperature increases would steady at significantly lower rates than those of the 21st century. As climate change is not globally uniform, regional differences in achieving this steady rate of warming can be expected. Here, we define a “Time of Steady Change” (TSC) as the time of reaching this steady rate of warming, and we present a method for estimating TSC with the use of General Circulation Model experiments run under greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios. We find that TSC occurs latest in low latitudes and in the Arctic, despite these areas steadying at very different absolute warming rates. These broad patterns are robust across multiple General Circulation Model ensembles and alternative definitions of TSC. These results indicate large regional differences in the trajectory of climate change in coming centuries. ©2019. The Authors.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081704
