Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa using the hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator (HYDREMATS)
Name
Yamana-2010-Early warnings of the potential for malaria.pdf
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1.79 MB
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Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
3fc41edc314b2a5cef1739de5ae19886
Author(s)
Yamana, Teresa K.
Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.
Date Issued
November 2010
Journal
Malaria Journal
Publisher
Springer (Biomed Central Ltd.)
Citation
Yamana, Teresa K, and Elfatih AB Eltahir. “Early Warnings of the Potential for Malaria Transmission in Rural Africa Using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS).” Malaria Journal 9.1 (2010): 323. Web.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Background
Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics.
Methods
HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future.
Results
Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.
Conclusions
HYDREMATS can be used to make reasonable predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, and provide early warnings of the potential for malaria epidemics in Africa.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-9-323
