Epidemic modeling techniques for smallpox
Name
62256284-MIT.pdf
Description
Full printable version
Size
5.43 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
c141f8413c31d3da374e46a2f067f779
Author(s)
McLean, Cory Y. (Cory Yuen Fu)
Advisor(s)
Adam Szpiro and Lucila Ohno-Machado.
Date Issued
2004
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
Infectious disease models predict the impact of outbreaks. Discrepancies between model predictions stem from both the disease parameters used and the underlying mathematics of the models. Smallpox has been modeled extensively in recent years to determine successful response guidelines for a future outbreak. Five models, which range in fidelity, were created for this thesis in an attempt to reveal the differences inherent in the mathematical techniques used in the models. The disease parameters were standardized across all models. Predictions for various outbreak scenarios are given, and the strengths and weaknesses of each modeling technique are discussed. The mixing strategy used greatly affects the predictions of the models. The results gathered indicate that mass vaccination should be considered as a primary response technique in the event of a future smallpox outbreak.
Description
Thesis (M. Eng.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2004.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 119-121).
Subjects
Electrical Engineering and Computer Science.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
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