Stopping Pandemic Flu: Government and Community Interventions in a Multi-Community Model
Name
esd-wp-2007-28.pdf
Size
910.53 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
fe3cff1d0c164b9c51cadc1b3e74b89b
Author(s)
Nigmatulina, Karima R.
Larson, Richard Charles
Date Issued
December 2007
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Engineering Systems Division
Series/Report no.
ESD Working Papers;ESD-WP-2007-28
Abstract
Focusing on mitigation strategies for global pandemic influenza, we use elementary mathematical models to evaluate the implementation and timing of intervention strategies such as travel restrictions, vaccination, social distancing and improved hygiene. A spreadsheet model of infection spread between several linked heterogeneous communities is based on analytical calculations and Monte Carlo simulations. Since human behavior will likely change during the course of a pandemic, thereby altering the dynamics of the disease, we incorporate a feedback parameter into our model to reflect altered behavior. Our results indicate that while a flu pandemic could be devastating; there are coping methods that when implemented quickly and correctly can significantly mitigate the severity of a global outbreak.
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