Forecasting electricity demand in the data-poor Indian context
Name
1227274035-MIT.pdf
Size
1.36 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
b044fe5995f4adccd50e60d3624293f4
Author(s)
Alsup, Meia(Meia L.)
Advisor(s)
Robert Stoner.
Date Issued
2020
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
Electricity demand at the grid level is steadily growing in India. More areas are getting interconnected to the grid; and with rising incomes, electricity is highly affected by adoption of air conditioning systems and electric vehicles. Compared with the developed world context where electricity demand is approximately flat if not decreasing year to year, demand in India is growing. In this paper, we aim to examine forecasting methods and determine an optimal method for forecasts in India. Despite limited historical data, we improve forecasts of electricity demand in India out to the year 2050. The forecasts are in five year increments across three different GDP growth scenarios (not accounting for Covid-19). In addition, a layer of natural variation is added to the forecasts for the purpose of modeling the role of various energy technologies on the grid. The methodology to generate more realistic sample loads from predicted average scenarios is a key contribution.
Description
Thesis: M. Eng., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, September, 2020
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 51-53).
Subjects
Electrical Engineering and Computer Science.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
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MIT theses may be protected by copyright. Please reuse MIT thesis content according to the MIT Libraries Permissions Policy, which is available through the URL provided.
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