Vulnerability models for environmental risk assessment. Application to a nuclear power plant containment building
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477_2015_Article_1179.pdf
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Author(s)
Crusells-Girona, M.
Egozcue, J. J.
Musolas Otano, Antoni Maria
Date Issued
November 2015
Journal
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Publisher
Springer-Verlag
Citation
Musolas, A., J. J. Egozcue, and M. Crusells-Girona. "Vulnerability models for environmental risk assessment. Application to a nuclear power plant containment building." Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, November 2015, pp. 1-15.
Version
Author's final manuscript
Abstract
Environmental risk management consists of making decisions on human activities or construction designs that are affected by the environment and/or have consequences or impacts on it. In these cases, decisions are made such that risk is minimized. In this regard, the forthcoming paper develops a close form that relates risk with cost, hazard, and vulnerability; and then focuses on vulnerability. The vulnerability of a system under an external action can be described by the conditional probability of the degrees of damage after an event. This vulnerability model can be obtained by a simplicial regression of those outputs, as a response variable, on explanatory variables. After a theoretical explanation, the authors present the case study of a nuclear power plant containment building. Once a given overpressure is registered inside the containment building, three possible outputs are to be considered: serviceability, breakdown, and collapse. The study consists of three steps: (a) modelling the containment building using the finite element method; (b) given an overpressure, simulating uncertain parameters related to material constitutive equations in order to obtain the corresponding proportions; (c) performing a simplicial regression to obtain a meaningful vulnerability model. The simulation provides normalized-to-unity outputs under the overpressure conditions. The obtained vulnerability model is in definite correspondence with previous results in nuclear power plant safety analysis reports.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1179-1
