Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City
Name
2009JD013630.pdf
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2.18 MB
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Author(s)
Lin, N,
Emanuel, Kerry Andrew
Smith, J. A.
Vanmarcke, E.
Date Issued
September 2010
Journal
Journal of Geophysical Research
Publisher
American Geophysical Union
Citation
Lin, N., K. A. Emanuel, J. A. Smith, and E. Vanmarcke (2010), Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D18121, doi:10.1029/2009JD013630. ©2010 American Geophysical Union
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States. We apply a model-based risk assessment methodology to investigate hurricane storm surge risk for New York City (NYC). We couple a statistical/deterministic hurricane model with the hydrodynamic model SLOSH (sea, lake, and overland surges from hurricanes) to generate a large number of synthetic surge events; the SLOSH model simulations are compared to advanced circulation model simulations. Statistical analysis is carried out on the empirical data. It is observed that the probability distribution of hurricane surge heights at the Battery, NYC, exhibited a heavy tail, which essentially determines the risk of New York City being struck by a catastrophic coastal flood event. The peaks-over-threshold method with the generalized Pareto distribution is applied to estimate the upper tail of the surge heights. The resulting return periods of surge heights are consistent with those of other studies for the New York area. This storm surge risk assessment methodology may be applied to other coastal areas and can be extended to consider the effect of future climate change.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009jd013630
