Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?
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bams-d-16-0134.1.pdf
Size
7.58 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
0350ef428bf2f47f07691ece59b89a99
Author(s)
Emanuel, Kerry Andrew
Date Issued
March 2017
Journal
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Citation
Emanuel, Kerry. “Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 98, 3 (March 2017): 495–501 © 2017 American Meteorological Society
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Hurricane track forecasts have improved steadily over the past few decades, yet forecasting hurricane intensity remains challenging. Of special concern are the rare instances of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly just before landfall, catching forecasters and populations off guard, thereby risking large casualties. Here, we review two historical examples of such events and use scaling arguments and models to show that rapid intensification just before landfall is likely to become increasingly frequent and severe as the globe warms.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0134.1
