Forecasting and Risk Analysis in Supply Chain Management
Name
esd-wp-2008-20.pdf
Description
Book Chapter (in press, Springer-Verlag)
Size
326.23 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
5455cd1b2701a323b2e1cef422a25562
Author(s)
Hilmola, Olli-Pekka
Graham, Donald
Granger, Clive W. J.
Datta, Shoumen
Alternative Title
Confluence of Econometrics with Operations Management
Date Issued
October 2008
Publisher
MIT Engineering Systems Division
Series/Report no.
MIT ESD Working Paper;esd-wp-2008-20
Abstract
Forecasting is an underestimated field of research in supply chain management. Recently advanced methods are coming into use. Initial results are encouraging, but often require changes in policies for collaboration and transparency. In this paper we explore advanced forecasting tools for decision support in supply chain scenarios and provide preliminary simulation results from their impact on demand amplification. It appears that advanced methods may be useful to predict oscillated demand but their performance is constrained by current structural and operating policies. Improvements to reduce demand amplification, for example, may decrease the risk of out of stock but increase operating cost or risk of excess inventory.
Description
Application of econometric principles and techniques (VAR-MGARCH) to risk analytics and forecasting in operations management, healthcare, security and other verticals.
Subjects
Forecasting, SCM, demand amplification, risk management, intelligent decision systems
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Auto-ID Laboratory
Persistent DSpace Link
