Pitfalls of modeling wind power using Markov chains
Name
Brokish-2009-Pitfalls of modeling wind power using Markov chains.pdf
Size
575.65 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
344270519f768104cffa2840e2eca4af
Author(s)
Kirtley, James L., Jr.
Brokish, Kevin
Date Issued
April 2009
Journal
IEEE/PES Power Systems Conference and Exposition, 2009. PSCE '09
Publisher
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Citation
Brokish, K., and J. Kirtley. “Pitfalls of modeling wind power using Markov chains.” Power Systems Conference and Exposition, 2009. PSCE '09. IEEE/PES. 2009. 1-6. © 2009 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers.
Version
Final published version
Abstract
An increased penetration of wind turbines have given rise to a need for wind speed/power models that generate realistic synthetic data. Such data, for example, might be used in simulations to size energy storage or spinning reserve. In much literature, Markov chains have been proposed as an acceptable method to generate synthetic wind data, but we have observed that the autocorrelation plots of wind speeds generated by Markov chains are often inaccurate. This paper describes when using Markov chains is appropriate and demonstrates the gross underestimation of storage requirements that occurs at short time steps. We found that Markov chains should not be used for time steps shorter than 15 to 40 minutes, depending on the order of the Markov chain and the number of wind power states. This result implies that Markov chains are of limited use as synthetic data generators for small microgrid models and other applications requiring short simulation time steps. New algorithms for generating synthetic wind data at shorter time steps must be developed.
Subjects
Energy storage
Markov processes
modeling
wind energy
wind power generation
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Terms of Use
Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1109/PSCE.2009.4840265
