Interpreting Accident Statistics
Name
OR-004-71.pdf
Size
2.15 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
b4f2de11219d2f0f6e09f743dd3149d5
Author(s)
Ferreira, Joseph Jr.
Date Issued
July 1971
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Operations Research Center
Series/Report no.
Operations Research Center Working Paper;OR 004-71
Abstract
Accident statistics have often been used to support the argument that an abnormally small proportion of drivers account for a large proportion of the accidents. This paper compares statistics developed from six-year data for 7, 800 California drivers with results predicted using compound Poisson models for driver accident involvement that assume specific variations in accident likelihood among drivers. The results indicate that the fraction of drivers accounting for various proportions of all accident involvements is too high to suggest that "chronic" accident repeaters are involved in most accidents.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Operations Research Center
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