Evolution and Reproducibility of Simulation Modeling in Epidemiology and Health Policy Over Half a Century
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mxab006.pdf
Description
Published version
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418.19 KB
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4962a9e4ab776529ae6dbc223461afa3
Author(s)
Jalali, Mohammad S
DiGennaro, Catherine
Guitar, Abby
Lew, Karen
Rahmandad, Hazhir
Date Issued
2022
Journal
Epidemiologic Reviews
Publisher
Oxford University Press (OUP)
Citation
Jalali, Mohammad S, DiGennaro, Catherine, Guitar, Abby, Lew, Karen and Rahmandad, Hazhir. 2022. "Evolution and Reproducibility of Simulation Modeling in Epidemiology and Health Policy Over Half a Century." Epidemiologic Reviews, 43 (1).
Version
Final published version
Abstract
Abstract
Simulation models are increasingly being used to inform epidemiologic studies and health policy, yet there is great variation in their transparency and reproducibility. In this review, we provide an overview of applications of simulation models in health policy and epidemiology, analyze the use of best reporting practices, and assess the reproducibility of the models using predefined, categorical criteria. We identified and analyzed 1,613 applicable articles and found exponential growth in the number of studies over the past half century, with the highest growth in dynamic modeling approaches. The largest subset of studies focused on disease policy models (70%), within which pathological conditions, viral diseases, neoplasms, and cardiovascular diseases account for one-third of the articles. Model details were not reported in almost half of the studies. We also provide in-depth analysis of modeling best practices, reporting quality and reproducibility of models for a subset of 100 articles (50 highly cited and 50 randomly selected from the remaining articles). Only 7 of 26 in-depth evaluation criteria were satisfied by more than 80% of samples. We identify areas for increased application of simulation modeling and opportunities to enhance the rigor and documentation in the conduct and reporting of simulation modeling in epidemiology and health policy.
Simulation models are increasingly being used to inform epidemiologic studies and health policy, yet there is great variation in their transparency and reproducibility. In this review, we provide an overview of applications of simulation models in health policy and epidemiology, analyze the use of best reporting practices, and assess the reproducibility of the models using predefined, categorical criteria. We identified and analyzed 1,613 applicable articles and found exponential growth in the number of studies over the past half century, with the highest growth in dynamic modeling approaches. The largest subset of studies focused on disease policy models (70%), within which pathological conditions, viral diseases, neoplasms, and cardiovascular diseases account for one-third of the articles. Model details were not reported in almost half of the studies. We also provide in-depth analysis of modeling best practices, reporting quality and reproducibility of models for a subset of 100 articles (50 highly cited and 50 randomly selected from the remaining articles). Only 7 of 26 in-depth evaluation criteria were satisfied by more than 80% of samples. We identify areas for increased application of simulation modeling and opportunities to enhance the rigor and documentation in the conduct and reporting of simulation modeling in epidemiology and health policy.
MIT Department
Sloan School of Management
Terms of Use
Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0
Persistent DSpace Link
DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1093/EPIREV/MXAB006
