Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19
Name
Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19.pdf
Size
2.5 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
8b5130bc063da1ce32893f2db5fd8001
Author(s)
Aleta, Alberto
Martín-Corral, David
Pastore y Piontti, Ana
Ajelli, Marco
Litvinova, Maria
Chinazzi, Matteo
Dean, Natalie E.
Halloran, M. Elizabeth
Longini Jr, Ira M.
Merler, Stefano
Date Issued
August 5, 2020
Publisher
Nature Human Behaviour
Citation
Aleta, A., Martin-Corral, D., y Piontti, A. P., Ajelli, M., Litvinova, M., Chinazzi, M., ... & Moreno, Y. (2020). Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19. Nature Human Behaviour, 4(9), 964-971.
Abstract
While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.
MIT Department
MIT Connection Science (Research institute)
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