Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand
Name
Climate Change Thailand 2009.pdf
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Author(s)
Felkner, John S.
Tazhibayeva, Kamilya
Townsend, Robert
Date Issued
May 2009
Journal
American Economic Review
Publisher
American Economic Association
Citation
Felkner, John, Kamilya Tazhibayeva, and Robert Townsend. 2009. "Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in Thailand." American Economic Review, 99(2): 205–10.
DOI:10.1257/aer.99.2.205
Version
Author's final manuscript
Abstract
Our goal is to evaluate crop yield impacts from likely climate changes for Southeast Asia.
To do so we link soil science crop modeling, weather simulators, and global climate change
modeling into an integrated economic model of multi-stage rice production. The economic
model is estimated with detailed monthly data on inputs, operations, and environmental data over
a five year period. We then forecast impacts under two different future economic scenarios, one
assuming high future global anthropogenic pollution emissions, and the other assuming low. We
compare results of the integrated economic model with those of a biophysical model, inputting
into both the stochastic realizations of a weather generator, calibrated against the present, no
climate benchmark and against the two climate mild and severe climate change scenarios. The
more realistic forecasts from socio economic model thus include important farmer behavioral/
mitigation strategies. We discuss both aggregate/average impacts as well heterogeneity in
response.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics
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DOI of Published Version
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.2.205
