Response of the North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Climatology to Global Warming: Application of Dynamical Downscaling to CMIP5 Models
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Response of the north pacific.pdf
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Author(s)
Karnauskas, Kristopher B.
Donnelly, Jeffrey P.
Emanuel, Kerry Andrew
Zhang, Lei, Ph. D Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, fl. 2014.
Date Issued
February 2017
Journal
Journal of Climate
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Citation
Zhang, Lei et al. “Response of the North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Climatology to Global Warming: Application of Dynamical Downscaling to CMIP5 Models.” Journal of Climate 30, 4 (February 2017): 1233–1243 © 2017 American Meteorological Society
Version
Final published version
Abstract
A downscaling approach is applied to future projection simulations from four CMIP5 global climate models to investigate the response of the tropical cyclone (TC) climatology over the North Pacific basin to global warming. Under the influence of the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gases, TC-track density, power dissipation, and TC genesis exhibit robust increasing trends over the North Pacific, especially over the central subtropical Pacific region. The increase in North Pacific TCs is primarily manifested as increases in the intense and relatively weak TCs. Examination of storm duration also reveals that TCs over the North Pacific have longer lifetimes under global warming.
Through a genesis potential index, the mechanistic contributions of various physical climate factors to the simulated change in TC genesis are explored. More frequent TC genesis under global warming is mostly attributable to the smaller vertical wind shear and greater potential intensity (primarily due to higher sea surface temperature). In contrast, the effect of the saturation deficit of the free troposphere tends to suppress TC genesis, and the change in large-scale vorticity plays a negligible role.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
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Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use.
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0496.1
