Persistent Appreciations and Overshooting: A Normative Analysis
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Persistent Appreciations and Overshooting.pdf
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339.55 KB
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c97b02987c66a89c637bbcf7dc8a5c20
Author(s)
Lorenzoni, Guido
Caballero, Ricardo J.
Date Issued
April 2014
Journal
IMF Economic Review
Publisher
Palgrave Macmillan Publishers
Citation
Caballero, Ricardo J, and Guido Lorenzoni. “Persistent Appreciations and Overshooting: A Normative Analysis.” IMF Econ Rev 62, no. 1 (April 2014): 1–47.
Version
Original manuscript
Abstract
Most economies experience episodes of persistent real exchange rate appreciations, when the question arises whether there is a need for intervention to protect the export sector. This paper presents a model of irreversible destruction where exchange rate intervention may be justified if the export sector is financially constrained. However, the criterion for intervention is not whether there are bankruptcies or not, but whether these can cause a large exchange rate overshooting once the factors behind the appreciation subside. The optimal policy includes ex-ante and ex-post interventions. Ex-ante (that is, during the appreciation phase) interventions have limited effects if the financial resources in the export sector are relatively abundant. In this case the bulk of the intervention takes place ex-post, and is concentrated in the first period of the depreciation phase. In contrast, if the financial constraint in the export sector is tight, the policy is shifted toward ex-ante intervention and it is optimal to lean against the appreciation.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Economics
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DOI of Published Version
https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2014.7
