The dynamics of global financial crises
Name
50777338-MIT.pdf
Description
Full printable version
Size
2.95 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
449d6bc7aff3001309069aa3f3deb959
Author(s)
Amonlirdviman, Kevin, 1975-
Advisor(s)
Andrew W. Lo.
Date Issued
2002
Publisher
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Abstract
This thesis presents a Markov chain model of the transmission of financial crises. Using bilateral trade data and a measure of exchange market pressure, it develops a method to determine a set of transition probabilities that describe the crisis transmission dynamics. The dynamics are characterized by one month conditional crisis probabilities and the probability of a crisis occurring within one year. Calculations of the transition probabilities for a three country example suggest that minor trading partners can increase the likelihood of a crisis in the home country through their effect on major trading partners.
Description
Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Operations Research Center, 2002.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 57-58).
Subjects
Operations Research Center.
MIT Department
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Operations Research Center
Sloan School of Management
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